Africare Nigeria, in partnership with McCann Global Health, and funded by the Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (the Alliance), has embarked on a behavioural change communication campaign to increase demand for clean cookstoves across Nigeria. The goal of the Upgrade to Gas national initiative is to help increase household adoption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and LPG cookstoves (clean cookstoves), for improved health, improved livelihoods, and positive effects on the environment.

Arabale, in consultation with Africare Nigeria, has measured the total return on investment (TROI) that will be realized from the initiative over the next 5 years even after the initiative ends. To assess the total impact of the initiative, a logical theory of change was mapped by identifying key stakeholders and their intended and/ or unintended changes, inputs into the initiative, outputs derived from the initiative, and initiative outcomes. All inputs make up to the total investment in the initiative and initiative outcomes were measured in financial terms to give the total value. The net present value of the ratio of total value to total investment gives the TROI. Our report describes the process, results, and recommendations from measuring the TROI for Upgrade to Gas.

Gas, or liquefied petroleum gas, LPG, is the product of a complex ecosystem. Twenty stakeholder groups have been identified. This may not represent all stakeholders that affect or are affected by the initiative, and a stakeholder group may consist of sub-groups, like the Nigerian LPG Market Value Chain which consists of all stakeholders involved in getting LPG from supply to consumption. Stakeholder groups are categorized into primary, secondary and tertiary but the key stakeholder groups are the owners/implementers: Africare Nigeria and McCann Global Health; beneficiaries: Nigerian households; and influencers/contributors: the Federal Government of Nigeria, Nigeria LNG Limited (which is jointly owned by the Federal Government), NavGas which manages the LPG storage depots, and the LPG and Dirty Fuels Market Value Chains.

The overall desired theory of change for Upgrade to Gas is to provide decision makers with the right information and an enabling environment to make the right decisions to help improve their health, livelihoods, protect the environment, empower women, increase profits, and regulate the industry. The total return on investment, TROI, for Upgrade to Gas is 14.98. This means that for every Naira invested in this initiative, at least 14.98 Naira total value will be created. In total, an estimated 171, 760, 050.00 Naira will be invested and at least 2, 401, 101, 639.32 Naira total value will be created over 5 years. The logical theory of change describes how.

A challenge to measuring TROI is availability of required data. While stakeholder groups expressed desired changes, some did not have any metrics on those changes. Therefore, assumptions were made which, for the sake of transparency, are explained in the report. Developing and monitoring critical metrics helps to gauge trends over time and the impact of key initiatives like Upgrade to Gas. Key metrics will also help identify critical interventions that need to be made, when and by who, to create even more value.

Key recommendations if implemented will help to continue to expand and reap the benefits of LPG for stakeholders. All recommendations are included in the report but priority should be given to providing an affordable financing option for low-income households for quick mass adoption, such as Islamic banking or a similar option. Critical metrics should be developed and monitored regularly to further the critical work government agencies, organizations and NGOs are doing to help communities. Making decisions based on opinions, conjecture and limited observation of a few stakeholders is not scientific nor is it strategic and it may allow mistakes to be made and critical opportunities lost. While women traditionally are responsible for cooking and feeding in the home, the health and livelihood benefits should continue to be marketed to the men as well. Men are more status-seeking and a no-fume clean cookstove can be presented as an upward mobility symbol.

Upgrade to Gas’ Logical Theory of Change